First major hurricane of the season projected to arrive early

Tropical Storm Erin has formed in the Atlantic Ocean and is anticipated to become the first major hurricane in 2025, although it is too early to say if it might sweep through Atlantic Canada.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center has issued a forecast of Erin’s winds potentially reaching 115 mp/h over the next 120 hours, which would make it a Category 3 hurricane.

Whether or not its path hits the eastern United States seaboard or Canada next week remains widely variable at the moment, as the storm is in its infancy.

Erin’s arrival as a major hurricane is early in the season, AccuWeather says. “The average date for the first hurricane is Aug. 11, but the first major hurricane typically does not occur until Sept. 1.”

Three main phenomena will influence Erin’s path as it nears the North American coastline next week, says AccuWeather. They are the shape of a ‘Bermuda High’ (a high barometric pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean), plus a cool front and a jet stream near the Atlantic coast.

“If the Bermuda high remains fairly round or yields to the approaching cool front and jet stream dip, Erin is likely to turn to the north before reaching the U.S.,” AccuWeather projects.

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But, if the Bermuda high extends well to the west, “it could block the potential major hurricane’s northward path,” says AccuWeather. “In this scenario, the cold front and jet stream dip would be delayed. The result would be a potential track very close to or onshore in the U.S., probably somewhere from the Carolinas north.”

In Canada, “Nova Scotia and Newfoundland could be facing more significant impacts from Erin late next week,” the weather forecaster adds.

Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center has been monitoring a mild disturbance to the south of Atlantic Canada, although it puts the chance of this disturbance becoming a hurricane at less than 10%.

“A non-tropical area of low pressure is currently located a few hundred miles to the south-southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada,” the National Hurricane Center reports. “While current shower and thunderstorm activity with the system remains limited, this system is drifting over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, and some tropical or subtropical development could occur over the next day or two.

“By the middle of this week, the system is expected to move northward over cooler waters, ending its chances for further tropical development.”

AccuWeather adds meteorologists are “monitoring a low chance for tropical or subtropical development to the south of Nova Scotia from Aug. 12-13. If anything develops in this area, it is expected to track toward Newfoundland.”